Take Heed of Early Voting Results: Numbers Spell Warning Signs for the GOP

Current early voting results in some key states hold some key insights into how the 2018 Midterm Elections might turn out. As a Northwestern political science major, with experience working on political campaigns as well as experience studying elections, I am interested in determining what these early poll results mean.

An article written by Gregg Re explains how these early voting results may indicate a poor Republican showing on election day. Early voting points to massive turnout, potential warning signs for GOP explains that poll numbers in Nevada, specifically in the historically Republican stronghold county of Washoe, where Republican’s held a double digit lead after two days of voting in 2014, show positive signs for Democrats hint that a possible Blue Wave could be on the horizon. The article, written for a local Fox News affiliate, also indicates based on current levels, there is a chance this midterm cycle could see turnout at 1996 levels, around 50%. As history has shown us, higher turnout favors the Democrats so while it is still early and there is plenty of time until Election Day, there are reasons Republican’s might want to be worried about the coming election.

Additionally, an article written by Ed Kilgore also hints there may be cause for concern among Trump and other Republican leaders. In his piece, First Early Voting Numbers Are Big, But Inconclusive, Kilgore explains there are many counties across multiple states that have come close or already surpassed their vote totals from the 2016 Election. The piece, written in New York Magazine, does caution that too much stock shouldn’t be put into early voting results, especially given the poll results failure in 2016, but at least thus far in the states who have opened up to early voting show positive signs for Democrats.

Based on these articles and my experience as a Northwestern student, I have come up with three action items people looking into the election should take heed of:

1. Vote Early. Over half of all states have already started early voting
2. Watch for a Blue Wave. Key elections for democrats are showing early indicators of a positive result
3. Be aware of GOP Warning Signs. Understand how current early voting results could spell bad news for the Republicans.

Next time you try to evaluate the current trends in the election results, remember these 3 action items for insight into how the election may turn out.

Vita: 

Robert Burns is a senior political science major at Northwestern University with experience studying American election results.

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